Climate policy & energy policy

     Last weekend at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, UN member countries agreed on a road map to hammer out the post-2012 replacement for the Kyoto treaty, after a dramatic last-minute reversal of position of the US delegation. Today, the House passed an energy bill that will increase the fuel efficiency standard for all vehicles by 40% to 35 miles per gallon by 2020. The bill also requires that ethanol use increase 6-fold by 2022. The bill was sent to the White House. (See here & here.)

     During the coming century, our nation's climate policy and energy policy will become more and more entangled and intertwined, simply because fossil fuels, the principal sources of greenhouse gases, happen to be also our principal energy sources. Let's not forget, however, that they are not equivalent to each other.

     As shown in the table, an energy policy must address various issues other than global warming. Meanwhile, a climate policy needs to address factors not associated with fossil energy use. For example, livestock feeding and agricultural activities have been known to account for around 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. Also, the global nature of climate change requires much greater international interactions than energy.

     At this point, almost all factors influencing our energy policy are moving it closer and closer to our climate policy. Energy independence urges development of non-fossil energy sources (although coals, which are abundant domestically, satisfy this requirement). Declining worldwide oil reserves require development of new energy sources (although abundant coals can satisfy this end too). Even China is gradually waking to the reality that it cannot sustain strong economic growth if sea level rises dramatically and flooding or droughts become more severe.

     These factors, nevertheless, may someday move away from their current direction, pulling our energy policy from our climate policy. (For example, if Mid-East stabilizes, or enormous new fossil energy reserves are discovered.) If that happens, oil & other fossil energy prices may remain low, disrupting markets for clean technologies and carbon credits. In that case, climate policies may encounter greater conflicts with energy policies.

     We'll need to be aware of this possibility. And, at the same time, should work to find ways  to reduce the amount of green house gases our farms' manures send to the sky!

     Please click the link below for the Chinese version.